RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOT A CHOICE… IT IS A NECESSITY
By: Mohamed El-Ashry
Vice-Chairman, AFED Board of Trustees, Senior Fellow, UN Foundation
The world’s energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now and CO2 emissions will increase at about the same rate. In 2009, fossil fuels accounted for 81% of global total primary energy supply which doubled between 1971 and 2009. Growing global energy demand from fossil fuels plays a key role in the continued growth in CO2 emissions. In fact, CO2 from energy production and use represent about 65% of global emissions.
To meet the carbon cuts scientists calculate are needed by 2020, the IEA says, the world needs to generate 28% of its electricity from renewable sources and47% by 2035. Yet renewables now make up just 16% of global electricity supply.
The last six years have seen remarkable growth in the deployment of RE technologies throughout the world, including during the recession. Energy investment grew by a whopping 630% between 2004 and 2010. In 2011, despite of the sluggish global economy, investment in RE was $257 billion. The solar sector experienced the strongest growth helped by declining prices and government support. The price of photovoltaic (PV) modules fell by close to 50% during 2011 and now stands 75% lower than three years ago.
Thomas Edison must be smiling from above. Eighty years ago, in 1931, he met with Henry Ford who had invented the gasoline powered car and told him: "I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power. I hope we don't wait until oil runs out before we tackle that."
Wind power on the other hand, which leads other renewable sources, climbed in 2011 to a new record with more than 80 countries now harnessing the wind.
Just as the communications and information economies have changed beyond recognition over the past twodecades, so too will the energy economy in the next decade or two. Recent trends in the adoption of cell phones give a sense of how quickly new technologies can spread. At the end of 2010, there were 5.3 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide, including 4 billion in developing countries (compared to one million units in 1986 and 961 million in 2001). According to Lester Brown, President of the Earth Policy Institute, once phone sales reached 1 million in 1986, the numbers doubled every 2 years for the following 15 years. We are now seeing similar growth figures for RE technologies. Solar cell installations are doubling every 2 years and the annual growth in wind power capacity is not far behind.
Yes, there are many barriers to scaling up renewable energy, but they should not dissuade us from aspirations. As Henry David Thoreau wrote, “If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost….Now put the foundations under them.”